Global warming has accelerated significantly since approximately 2015, according to a new analysis from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Researchers found statistically significant evidence that the planet's long-term warming rate is increasing. This finding emerged after accounting for natural temperature fluctuations.
Over the last decade, global temperatures have increased at an estimated rate of 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade. This rate is higher than the average warming rate of just under 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade observed from 1970 to 2015. This recent pace surpasses that of any previous decade since instrumental temperature records began in 1880.
The researchers isolated the long-term warming signal by filtering out natural influences. These influences include El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles. El Niño can temporarily raise global temperatures, while volcanic eruptions can have a cooling effect. Changes in solar activity also cause minor temperature variations.
Measurements from five widely used global temperature datasets were analyzed. These datasets include those from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5. The adjusted data showed an acceleration of global warming since 2015 with over 98 percent statistical certainty. This consistency appeared across all examined datasets and analysis methods.
Two statistical methods confirmed the acceleration. A quadratic trend analysis indicated an upward bend in the temperature curve. A piecewise linear model identified when the warming rate changed. Both approaches supported the conclusion that global warming has accelerated.
This study focused on detecting and measuring the statistical acceleration, not its specific causes. However, climate models can produce periods of accelerated warming. This suggests that an increasing warming rate aligns with current climate modeling. If the warming rate of the past ten years continues, the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit of the Paris Agreement could be exceeded before 2030. Future carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will heavily influence whether this acceleration continues.
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