Locust Warning Systems Yield High Returns, Prevent Disasters

A recent study found that early warning systems for desert locusts significantly reduce damage and offer substantial financial returns. The research, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, analyzed three decades of data. It concluded that surveillance systems can generate returns up to 680 times the initial investment.

Assessing the benefits of these systems is challenging. Successful monitoring prevents large outbreaks, meaning little damage is reported. Researchers overcame this by examining periods when monitoring was hindered by armed conflicts. Reduced surveillance, combined with favorable breeding conditions like heavy rainfall, led to an increase in locust swarms.

Locust swarms pose a severe threat to food security in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. They consume vast amounts of crops and pastureland. Machine learning methods were used to track swarm migratory paths. These paths connect breeding areas affected by conflict and rain to human populations experiencing outbreaks.

Exposure to locust swarms during pregnancy can have long-term health consequences. Children exposed in utero are 18% more likely to experience stunted growth. They also face an increased risk of dying before age five. The 2019 Yemen civil war disrupted locust reporting, leading to a major outbreak. This outbreak resulted in an estimated 445,000 additional children with stunted growth, primarily in neighboring countries.

Interruptions to early warning systems can escalate into regional disasters and health crises. The economic impact is also significant. A rise in stunted growth can decrease a country's Gross Domestic Product by approximately $25 billion annually. The cost of maintaining monitoring systems is relatively modest in comparison. For every dollar invested, the surveillance system returns up to $680 through improved childhood nutrition alone.

This study highlights the importance of international coordination and preventative funding for pest and disease control. While these systems require investment, their absence or failure carries a much higher cost. Locust outbreaks are an example of disasters that may become more frequent with climate change.